After New Zealand’s 3-0 triumph at Wankhede in Mumbai, India’s chances to qualify for the World Test Championship (WTC) final 2025 come under threat and have to depend on the outcome of the upcoming Border Gavaskar Trophy.
Rohit Sharma and his men are left with the Australian tour featuring a 5-match test series in the WTC cycle and need to secure a win of 4-0 or 5-0 to strengthen their qualification chances without depending on other teams’ outcomes.
On Sunday (November 3), India not only lost to New Zealand by 25 runs but also dropped to second position in the WTC points table after suffering their first-ever whitewash in 3 or more matches in the home test series.
Moreover, Rohit Sharma is expected to miss out on the first test in Perth as he will be on paternity leave and Jasprit Bumrah will lead the team. In addition, it is another obstacle for India as they cannot take the chance to lose even a single match in the series.
Out of 14 matches, India secured 58.330 PCT with 8 wins, 5 losses, and a draw result, thereby allowing the WTC champions Aussies to rank at the top position in the points table with 62.50 PCT. However, Team India is slightly ahead compared to other competitors such as Sri Lanka (60 points and 55.56 PCT), New Zealand (72 points and 54.55 PCT) and South Africa (52 points and 54.17 PCT).
Predicting the possible scorelines of the Border Gavaskar Trophy helps to determine India’s chances to qualify for their third consecutive WTC final.
Outcome 1: If India Wins the Series by 5-0 or 4-0
Winning against Australia in their fortress with a 4-0 or 5-0 scoreline would certainly be a grueling task for Team India. But, it is the only way to enhance their percentage above 65 without having to rely on the results of other teams.
A 5-0 victory would place Rohit Sharma and his men in the top position with 159 points and 69.29 PCT.
Suppose India concludes the series with 4-0, which includes a draw result, then the PCT would boost to 65.79. In such scenarios, New Zealand wouldn’t be able to rank above India even if they accomplish another clean sweep of 3-0 against England in the 3-match test series,
Similarly, if Sri Lanka or South Africa wins all their remaining matches of the WTC cycle, India would still qualify for the finals irrespective of the following outcome:
- Sri Lanka: 4 wins (2 vs South Africa and 2 vs Australia).
- South Africa: 4 wins (2 vs Sri Lanka and 2 vs Pakistan).
Outcome 2: If India Wins the Series by 4-1 or 3-2
After an embarrassing whitewash against New Zealand, even a 4-1 outcome won’t be beneficial to India as other contenders could easily rise to the top with their PCT. Whereas, the scenario becomes even worse if India wins the series by a 3-2 margin.
Although they might secure 64.1% (with a 4-1 result), teams such as South Africa, Sri Lanka, or New Zealand would easily out beat India with higher PCT if they complete the series with a clean sweep against their opponents in the following ways:
- South Africa: 69.4 PCT by winning the series against Sri Lanka (2-0) and Pakistan (2-0).
- Sri Lanka: 69.2 PCT by winning the series against South Africa (2-0) and Australia (2-0).
- New Zealand: 64.3 PCT by winning the series against England (3-0).
However, India after securing a 4-1 victory would have another chance by still ranking higher with a 64.1 PCT based on the following outcomes of these contenders:
- Australia (51.75 PCT) after a 0-2 series loss vs Sri Lanka.
- New Zealand (57.14 PCT) after a 2–1 series win vs England.
- Sri Lanka (61.54 PCT) after 1-1 vs South Africa and 2-0 vs Australia (or vice versa).
- South Africa (61.11 PCT) after 1-0 vs Sri Lanka and 2-0 vs Pakistan (or the other way around).
- South Africa (63.11 PCT) after 2-0 vs Pakistan and 1-1 vs Sri Lanka (or the other way around).
Outcome 3: India Levels the series against Australia with 2-2
If India concludes with 60.53 PCT with a 2-2 draw, Australia still gains the upper hand with 62.28 PCT. Suppose Australia loses the series 0-2 against Sri Lanka, India’s qualification chances remain at risk. The only possibility for India to enter the WTC final is to hope South Africa, Sri Lanka, and New Zealand lose their upcoming series of the cycle.
Outcome 4: If India Loses the Series by 2-3
Even if India loses the series by 2-3, the only option India can qualify for the WTC final is to expect their competitors to conclude with a draw result in the remaining series, which is highly impossible based on these conditions:
- New Zealand with a 1-1 draw vs England.
- South Africa with a 1-1 draw vs Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
- Australia with a 0-0 draw vs Sri Lanka.
